Last April of this year, I was able to read an article in one of the ultrarunning resources in the Internet. I am sorry for not being able to write the particular source of this item.
This is the formula for one’s expected Finish Time in a 100-K road or trail race. I am not sure of the accuracy of this formula but I’ve tried to use this formula after I’ve finished the 1st edition of the Bataan Death March 102 Ultramarathon Race and it seemed to be accurate.
As a reference, there is no harm if you can use this formula in your training/preparation for the BDM 102 or in any running event that covers the said distance. Try it.
100-Km Race Time Finish (in Minutes) = 1,085.6 – 36.26 X (training speed in km/hour) – 1.43 X (weeekly training volume in km/week) + 2.50 X (age in years)
To give an example of this formula, let us assume some data. If your training speed is 6 kilometers per hour, multiply it by 36.26 and the result is 217.56. If your weekly training volume is 70 kilometers per week, multiply it by 1.43 and the result is 100.1. If your age is 60 years old, multiply it by 2.50 and the result is 150. You subtract 217.56 & 100.1 from 1,085.6 and from the result, you have to add 150. The result is 917.94 in minutes. Round it off to 918 and divide it by 60 and the result is 15.3 hours which is translated to 15 hours & 18 minutes.
I hope this simple formula will guide you in your training for your future races in the 100K and beyond distances.